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Jiang Xueqin, a Chinese-Canadian historian and educator, has gained viral notoriety—particularly on his YouTube channel Predictive History—for using a combination of game theory and historical parallels to forecast global events.

​His most famous “prophecy” stems from a May 2024 lecture where he outlined a series of events that many followers believe are currently unfolding. Here are 10 of his key predictions:

​1. Donald Trump’s 2024 Victory

Jiang predicted in early 2024 that Donald Trump would win the U.S. presidential election, despite the legal challenges and political landscape at the time.

​2. A Direct U.S.-Iran Conflict

​He forecasted that a second Trump term would inevitably lead to a direct military confrontation with Iran, driven by regional alliances (specifically with Israel and Saudi Arabia) and a desire to secure American energy hegemony.

​3. “The Iran Trap” and U.S. Defeat

​His most controversial claim is that the U.S. will ultimately lose a war with Iran. He argues that Iran’s mountainous terrain and long-term preparation make it a “logistical nightmare” where U.S. troops will become “hostages, not soldiers.”

​4. Implementation of a U.S. Military Draft

​Jiang predicts that to sustain a ground war in the Middle East, the U.S. government will be forced to reinstate a mandatory military draft.

​5. Years of “Factional Violence” in the U.S.

​He suggests that the reinstatement of the draft, combined with economic strain, will trigger widespread street riots and internal civil unrest, necessitating the domestic deployment of the National Guard.

​6. The Collapse of the Petrodollar

​Jiang argues that Iran’s counter-strategy—specifically attacking desalination plants and energy infrastructure in the Gulf—will paralyze the global oil market and lead to the “bursting” of the U.S. financial system and the end of the petrodollar.

​7. Japan’s Nuclearization

​As U.S. global influence wanes due to overextension in the Middle East, Jiang predicts that Japan will feel compelled to develop its own nuclear weapons for self-defense, fundamentally altering Asian security.

​8. The “2026 Reckoning”

​He identifies 2026 as a “convergence point” where decades of deferred problems—such as the AI investment bubble, financial abstraction, and geopolitical overextension—will all collide into a major global crisis.

​9. A Shift to Global Mercantilism

​Jiang predicts the collapse of global supply chains will lead to a return of “mercantilism,” where nations prioritize domestic production, protectionism, and the forced rearming of their militaries.

​10. The End of the American Empire

​Ultimately, Jiang posits that these events mark the “suicide” of the American imperial model. He believes the U.S. will transition from a global hegemon to a regional power, while Russia and China struggle (and potentially fail) to maintain the old world order.